Annual Wage Review 2026: when the decision lands and what to expect

The Fair Work Commission Expert Panel hands down its Annual Wage Review decision in the first or second week of June 2026, with new rates taking effect from the first full pay period on or after 1 July 2026. That gives employers about three weeks to update payroll systems, awards-based contracts, and salaries that reference NMW or modern award classifications.

The current National Minimum Wage is $24.95/hour ($948/week for a 38-hour week), set by the 2024-25 review at a 3.5% increase. The 2026 review will set the rate for 1 July 2026 - 30 June 2027.

The 2026 review process has been running since late 2025:

• Late February 2026: consultation period opens; key parties (ACTU, Ai Group, ACCI, state governments) prepare submissions.
• 27 March 2026: written submissions filed.
• April 2026: reply submissions and supplementary material.
• April-May 2026: oral hearings before the FWC Expert Panel — economists, unions, employer groups, government, and the FWC's own research feed in.
• Early-mid June 2026: decision handed down.
• 1 July 2026: new rates take effect.

The FWC has to balance four main factors in section 134 of the Fair Work Act: the relative living standards and needs of the low paid, encouraging collective bargaining, the performance and competitiveness of the national economy, and promoting social inclusion through workforce participation.

Submissions in 2026 sit in roughly three camps:

• Unions (ACTU et al.) usually push for a real-wage-positive result — a percentage above CPI. With CPI tracking around 3.0-3.5% in early 2026, a 4-5% claim is plausible.
• Employer groups (Ai Group, ACCI, COSBOA) usually argue for at-or-below CPI to protect employment, citing margin pressure on small business and inflation transmission to prices.
• Government typically argues for "real wage growth that doesn't fuel inflation" — a few tenths of a percent above CPI is the usual diplomatic landing.

Recent decisions: 2024-25 = 3.5%, 2023-24 = 3.75%, 2022-23 = 5.75% (catch-up year), 2021-22 = 5.2%. A 3.0-3.75% range looks most likely for 2026, but the FWC's Expert Panel has surprised the consensus before.

If the FWC settles on a 3.5% increase, the National Minimum Wage would rise:

• Hourly: $24.95 → approximately $25.82/hr
• Weekly (38hrs): $948.00 → approximately $981.18/wk
• Annual (full-time, 52 weeks): $49,296 → approximately $51,021

For a Hospitality Award Level 1 worker, base + 25% casual loading goes from $31.19/hr today to approximately $32.28/hr from 1 July 2026.

These are rough projections. The FWC publishes the exact decimal figures in the decision and the modern-award rate revisions follow within days.

If you have payroll responsibility:

1. Audit current rates against the right awards. If you're not sure which Modern Award covers your staff, run them through our Award Finder.
2. Map any salaries pegged to award rates. Salaries that are set as "X% above modern award" need automatic re-pegging on 1 July.
3. Update employment contracts that reference NMW. Some include a clause that auto-tracks the federal minimum.
4. Budget for the increase. 3-4% on the minimum-wage cohort means real numbers — model the worst case (a 5% decision) for your wages bill.
5. Brief your team. Workers will see the announcement on the news the same day; first-line managers should know the timing.

Want a deeper read on which awards get which size of increase? See Which Awards Get a 2026 Pay Rise?.

Three things, in this order:

1. Wait for the announcement. Don't argue with payroll about your new rate before 1 July — the FWC sets the figure, no one else.
2. Check your first July payslip carefully. The most common mistake is the rate change being applied a fortnight late or to the wrong classification.
3. If you're underpaid, raise it in writing. Wage theft has been a criminal offence since 1 January 2025 — your employer has every reason to fix a real underpayment quickly. See our unpaid wages guide.

We update the minimum wage tool and every Modern Award page within hours of the FWC decision. Subscribe to the FairWork Mate alerts (footer) to get the new rate in your inbox the same day, or just ask FairWork Mate AI on the day — it pulls from the same live rate database.