Annual Wage Review 2026: Decision Tracker

As of 5 April 2026, the Fair Work Commission's Annual Wage Review 2025-26 is squarely in the post-submissions phase. Written submissions closed on 31 March 2026, which means every union, employer group and interested party has now put its cards on the table. The Expert Panel (made up of seven FWC members including the President) is currently working through the evidence before public hearings kick off in mid-May.

This year's review is notable for two reasons. First, inflation has dropped back toward the RBA target band (headline CPI was 2.8% for the December 2025 quarter and around 2.7% for March 2026 based on monthly indicators). Second, the Fair Work Commission is operating under updated modern awards objectives after the 2024 reforms to s.284 of the Fair Work Act, which now explicitly require consideration of gender pay equity and the needs of the low paid. Both factors make the 2026 decision materially different to the hot-inflation reviews of 2022-2024.

Key milestones already passed:

• 5 December 2025: Consultation paper issued by the FWC
• 14 February 2026: Initial submissions deadline
• 14 March 2026: Reply submissions deadline
• 31 March 2026: Final written submissions closed
• 1 April 2026 (yesterday): Submissions now published on the FWC website

The Expert Panel is currently cross-referencing the major economic reports: the Commonwealth Treasury submission, RBA data, ABS wage price index and labour force numbers, and the FWC's own staff research paper (usually published in late April). Expect a flurry of analysis and media coverage over the next 6-8 weeks.

The Annual Wage Review follows a broadly predictable rhythm each year. Here's the full timeline for the 2025-26 review, with the dates we know and the dates we expect based on last year's pattern.

• Early December 2025: Consultation paper published (DONE)
• Mid February 2026: Initial submissions due (DONE)
• Mid March 2026: Reply submissions due (DONE)
• 31 March 2026: Final submissions close (DONE)
• Mid-April 2026: FWC staff research paper published (expected 14-18 April)
• 6-9 May 2026: Consultations with Commonwealth and state governments
• 12-16 May 2026: Public hearings at the Fair Work Commission in Melbourne (usually 3-4 days)
• 23 May 2026: Post-hearing submissions close
• Early June 2026 (expected 3-6 June): DECISION and reasons issued, with a Statement of Principles
• Late June 2026: Determinations issued varying each modern award to reflect the decision
• 1 July 2026: New rates operative (for the first full pay period on or after 1 July)

The "first full pay period on or after 1 July" rule catches a lot of people. If your pay week runs Monday to Sunday, and 1 July 2026 is a Wednesday, your new rate doesn't kick in until Monday 6 July. Your boss does not have to back-pay the gap. This is standard and has been the rule for decades.

The decision is typically published around 10am on the announcement day. You'll see it on the FWC website within minutes of the press conference. If you want to check whether your award has been updated, look for the Pay Guide for your award, which the FWO updates within days of the decision.

The submission positions are now public and they broadly reflect the usual battle lines, though with some interesting nuances this year.

ACTU (unions): 5.5% increase

The Australian Council of Trade Unions has submitted for a 5.5% rise to both the National Minimum Wage and all modern award rates. Their case rests on three pillars: cost of living pressures still well above wage growth over the last four years, the gender pay gap (80% of minimum wage workers are women), and the 2024 reforms to s.284. The ACTU cites HILDA data showing minimum wage workers have lost about 4.7% in real terms since 2021 despite nominal increases.

ACCI (employers): 1.5% increase

The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry has pitched the lowest of the major submissions. ACCI argues that inflation is now back near target, that small business conditions have deteriorated in hospitality and retail, and that anything above 2% would "risk employment levels in marginal businesses." Their case is built heavily on the RBA's December 2025 Statement on Monetary Policy.

Ai Group: 1.8% increase

The Australian Industry Group sits slightly above ACCI. Ai Group's submission emphasises manufacturing sector pressures and points to softening productivity data. They argue for an increase "in line with current CPI, not the peaks of previous years."

Commonwealth Government: no number, but "meaningful real increase"

The Albanese government's submission, filed by Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt, does not specify a figure but argues for "a meaningful real wage increase for Australia's low-paid workers." Translated, this means the government supports an increase above CPI. In previous years this language has correlated with actual decisions of CPI+1% or thereabouts.

State governments: Queensland, Victoria and the ACT have submitted supporting an above-inflation rise. NSW and WA have not specified a figure. The Tasmanian and NT governments have not made formal submissions this year.

Take the submissions with a grain of salt: they're advocacy positions, not forecasts. For a more realistic picture of where the 2026 decision is likely to land, look at what independent economists and bank research teams are predicting.

Current economist forecasts (April 2026):

• Westpac Economics: 3.25% increase
• CBA Economics: 3.0%
• NAB Markets Research: 3.5%
• ANZ Research: 3.25%
• Deloitte Access Economics: 3.3%
• Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA): 3.0-3.5%

Consensus is landing in the 3.0-4.0% range, with the median sitting around 3.25%. That's meaningfully below the 3.75% decision for 2024-25 and well below the 5.75% decision of 2023-24 (when inflation was running hot). Critically, a 3.25% increase would deliver a real wage increase of about 0.55% compared to current CPI of 2.7%.

Why the range is narrower than last year: the Expert Panel has historically been reluctant to deliver real wage cuts to the low-paid. With CPI now below 3%, even a conservative nominal increase of 3% delivers a real rise. That's very different to 2022-23 when inflation was above 6% and any achievable nominal increase still meant a real cut.

If the decision lands at 3.25%, the new National Minimum Wage would be about $25.76/hr (up from $24.95), or roughly $978.88 per week for a 38-hour full-time worker. For a minimum-wage worker that's an extra $30.78 per week before tax. Not transformative, but reliably above inflation.

Use our minimum wage calculator to model different increase scenarios and see what each would mean for your pay.

Critical point that trips up thousands of workers every July. The new rates take effect from the first full pay period on or after 1 July 2026. Not 1 July itself.

Worked example: your pay period runs Monday to Sunday. 1 July 2026 falls on a Wednesday. The pay period including 1 July (Monday 29 June to Sunday 5 July) is paid at the old rate because it started before 1 July. Your new rate applies from Monday 6 July.

Another example: your pay period runs Wednesday to Tuesday. 1 July 2026 is a Wednesday. Perfect timing. Your new rate applies from 1 July.

For monthly pay cycles (less common but increasing in white-collar roles): the first full month beginning on or after 1 July. For a cycle that runs 1st to 30th of the month, July is the first full month and the new rate applies from 1 July. For a cycle that runs 15th to 14th, the new rate applies from 15 July.

Who's covered by the NMW increase and who's covered by award rate increases:

• Award-covered employees: Get the percentage increase applied to their specific award classification rate. About 21% of Australian workers.
• Enterprise agreement employees: Only get the increase if their EA has a clause linking pay to the NMW or the relevant award, or if their EA rate falls below the new minimum after the review (in which case it must be topped up)
• Award-free employees on individual contracts: Only get the NMW increase if their pay rate is at or below the new NMW. If you're paid above the award and the NMW, your employer is under no obligation to pass on the increase
• Junior rates, apprentices and trainees: Get the percentage increase applied to their scaled rate
• Casuals: Get the increase applied to their base rate; the 25% loading is calculated on the new base

Every year, thousands of workers quietly get stiffed on the wage review increase because their employer "forgets" or "can't afford it" or "applied it differently." Don't let it slide. Here's the playbook.

Step 1: Work out exactly what you should be on. Once the decision is announced (early June 2026), the Fair Work Ombudsman updates all its Pay Guides within about 10 days. Look up your award and classification. Note the new hourly rate, ordinary weekly rate, and any allowances that have been adjusted.

Step 2: Check your payslip for the first full pay period on or after 1 July. The new rate should be visible. If the rate hasn't changed, it's either a processing delay or an underpayment.

Step 3: Ask in writing. Email your payroll contact. "Hi, I notice the Annual Wage Review decision took effect on [date]. My current rate is still showing as $X. Can you confirm when the updated rate will be applied, and whether any back-pay is due?" Keep it polite. Keep the copy.

Step 4: Give it two weeks. Payroll systems sometimes need to be updated by software vendors, award by award. A 2-week delay is unfortunately common and generally gets sorted without drama. A 4-week delay with no explanation is a red flag.

Step 5: Escalate. If you're still not getting the new rate six weeks after the decision took effect, lodge a free complaint with the Fair Work Ombudsman. The FWO prioritises underpayment claims related to award rate increases and most cases resolve within 6-8 weeks.

You can recover underpayments back to six years. If your employer fails to apply the review increase for two or three consecutive years, the cumulative underpayment can get serious fast. For a worker on a 38-hour week at $25/hr, a 3% underpayment over three years is roughly $1,483 plus superannuation.

Context matters. Here's how the Annual Wage Review has landed each year for the last six reviews, with real wage impact calculated against CPI.

Review Year	% Increase	NMW Result	Annual CPI	Real Wage Impact
2019-20	1.75%	$19.84/hr	0.7%	+1.05% real
2020-21	2.5%	$20.33/hr	3.8%	-1.30% real
2021-22	5.2%	$21.38/hr	6.1%	-0.90% real
2022-23	5.75%	$23.23/hr	6.0%	-0.25% real
2023-24	3.75%	$24.10/hr	3.8%	-0.05% real
2024-25	3.5%	$24.95/hr	2.7%	+0.80% real
2025-26 (expected)	~3.25%	~$25.76/hr	~2.7%	~+0.55% real

Two observations. First, the 2020-2023 period saw three straight years of real wage cuts for minimum-wage workers because inflation outpaced the decisions. The FWC cops a lot of criticism for this, though the Panel's usual response is that a bigger rise in those years would have fuelled inflation further. Second, since 2024, the decisions have started to deliver small real gains as inflation has come back toward target.

Cumulative impact: a worker who was on the NMW in July 2019 has seen their hourly rate rise from $19.49 to $24.95 over six years, a nominal increase of 28.0%. Over the same period cumulative CPI was roughly 24.2%. So real wages for minimum-wage workers are up about 3.1% since 2019, entirely due to the 2024-25 and 2025-26 decisions starting to claw back earlier losses.

Use our take home pay calculator to see how the 2026 increase will flow through to your after-tax pay. For most minimum-wage workers, the marginal tax rate is 16% in 2025-26, so roughly 84% of the gross increase lands in your bank account.