Minimum Wage 2026 Predictions: Will It Hit $26/hr?

As of April 2026, the national minimum wage is:

• $25.50 per hour
• $969.00 per week (38-hour full-time week)
• $50,388 per year before tax
• Casual rate: $31.88/hr (including 25% loading)

This rate took effect from 1 July 2025 after a 3.5% increase. The next increase takes effect from the first full pay period on or after 1 July 2026.

Based on the submissions filed and historical patterns, here are the three most likely outcomes:

• Scenario 1 — ACTU's 5%: $25.50 → $26.78/hr ($1,017/week, $52,907/year). Extra $48/week
• Scenario 2 — Inflation match (3.8%): $25.50 → $26.47/hr ($1,006/week). Extra $37/week
• Scenario 3 — Repeat of last year (3.5%): $25.50 → $26.39/hr ($1,003/week). Extra $34/week

All three scenarios put the minimum wage above $26/hr for the first time. The question is how far above.

After tax, super, and HECS (if applicable), here's what a full-time minimum wage worker would actually take home under each scenario:

• 5% increase: ~$858/week take-home (up ~$39 from current)
• 3.8% increase: ~$849/week take-home (up ~$30)
• 3.5% increase: ~$846/week take-home (up ~$27)

The difference between the highest and lowest scenario is about $12/week or $624/year. Not life-changing on paper, but meaningful when you're on minimum wage.

Run your own numbers with our take-home pay calculator.

The Expert Panel weighs several factors:

• Inflation (3.8%): Workers are going backwards in real terms — this favours a higher increase
• Wage growth (3.4%): Award workers are falling behind the broader economy
• Unemployment (4.1%): Still relatively low, suggesting the economy can absorb higher wages
• Productivity: Flat — employers argue wages shouldn't outpace productivity
• Global uncertainty: Trade tensions and tariffs create economic risk
• Cost of living: Housing, fuel, and grocery costs remain high for low-income workers

The FWC has shown a willingness to deliver above-inflation increases in recent years, especially after decades of real wage stagnation.

The FWC typically hands down its decision in early June — usually the first or second week. New rates apply from the first full pay period on or after 1 July 2026.

We'll update our wage review decision tracker the moment the decision drops. Follow that page for real-time updates.

In the meantime, check you're being paid correctly right now with our minimum wage calculator.